Friday, January 04, 2008

DOH!

I sensed a downward spiral after the recent stall so should have ejected but I decided to ride it through...and CRASHED...

Just as I feared, my once favorite stock CBLI, plummeted 60% on news that they did not win their DoD contract bid. I WAS up 18% on the stock w/ the few shares I had repurchased, and that turned into a 42% loss or so. It hurt my overall portfolio total quite a bit (couple percentage points) Didn't help that the overall market is in a downward trend. I'm just glad I still wasn't invested as heavily as I was before, therefore minimizing even HUGER losses (see previous post for more info).

Still, I'm quite upset since I forgot to put a trailing stop on CBLI, especially since I had my previous t-stop trigger right before their initial slide from $12 to $7. Being up on a volatile stock gives you that much more incentive to put a t-stop on it, especially since the sudden cancellation of the year end meeting was a huge WTF indicator for me. But alas, I forgot, and paid for it. Lesson learned.

*When purchasing speculative, volatile stocks such as biotechs or IPOs (that I highly suggest NOT to purchase unless it's play money that you don't mind losing), always remember to add a trailing stop (I personally use a percentage stop) to minimize huge losses. Depending on volatility and market cap of the stock, adjust your stop to vary on the amount you are willing to lose (the more volatility and lower market cap will require a higher t-stop percentage).

On the bright side, it did make me wonder who the contract was awarded to, so I did a little research and found out that Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) won the DoD RFP, most likely because their drug (Prochymal) is already in the FDA Fast Track Phase III trials, whereas CBLI's Protectan CBLB502 is only in Phase II. So, I did a little research, liked what I read and initiated a small position in the company. Hopefully I can make back some of the gains lost if OSIR can win the Department of Health and Human Services RFP as well. Again, another speculative pick that I'm willing to lose money on so REMEMBER YOUR T-STOPS!!!

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