 |  |
 |  |
 |  |
 |  |
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Lake Tahoe
So a bunch of my friends and I went to meet my cousin up in Tahoe earlier this month. We timed it perfectly and got there between 3 winter storms! Pretty scary driving, but overall it was a great trip and definite do-over next year (maybe back to Utah instead though).
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
I see stupid people...
Whenever you make a bonehead mistake, just view this pic and you'll feel much better!
Speaking of which, does anyone know Mr. Bernanke's email address? Send him this so he won't feel so dumb for cutting the Fed rates and killing the U.S. dollar!
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
The sky IS falling!
Yes, it's true, chicken little is actually right for once. For the time being of course. The sky WILL fall for a bit, Wall Street WILL be running around like chickens without heads for awhile, but as history shows the market WILL return to it's previous levels and WILL increase even further!
So anyway, yesterday, was Martin Luther King Day thus the U.S. stock markets were closed. However, the rest of the world who did NOT have the day off to celebrate MLK's b-day (which they should!) were busy freaking out about the feared U.S. recession.
So by sheer dumb luck I put in orders for Coach (COH) and Southern Copper Corporation (PCU) over the weekend (while I was at home being unsociable and my friends were partying). Well, not so much dumb luck since I felt it was a great time to start positions in both companies.
COH, which my little sister LOVES btw, is now expanding to Asia markets. The buzz is that Asia is sooooo hot right now (like Hansel hot!). So I figured I'd initiate a small position. I should have put in more!!! The market opened at well under 4% (COH at -6%) and rebounded a bit. COH ended up being up 8%! Sorry everyone, I know most of the investors are getting pummeled right now so I should definitely be happy that my oh so very small play did well.
As for PCU, it was just a greed play since their hefty dividend should be released soon. =)
So anyway, yesterday, was Martin Luther King Day thus the U.S. stock markets were closed. However, the rest of the world who did NOT have the day off to celebrate MLK's b-day (which they should!) were busy freaking out about the feared U.S. recession.
So by sheer dumb luck I put in orders for Coach (COH) and Southern Copper Corporation (PCU) over the weekend (while I was at home being unsociable and my friends were partying). Well, not so much dumb luck since I felt it was a great time to start positions in both companies.
COH, which my little sister LOVES btw, is now expanding to Asia markets. The buzz is that Asia is sooooo hot right now (like Hansel hot!). So I figured I'd initiate a small position. I should have put in more!!! The market opened at well under 4% (COH at -6%) and rebounded a bit. COH ended up being up 8%! Sorry everyone, I know most of the investors are getting pummeled right now so I should definitely be happy that my oh so very small play did well.
As for PCU, it was just a greed play since their hefty dividend should be released soon. =)
Thursday, January 17, 2008
The Recession is in session people!!!
Although they still have yet to admit it, I'm thoroughly convinced that the U.S. economy is now in a recession. We have yet to see the jobless and inflation data, but things aren't looking good at all. And now the Fed is scrambling to make adjustments. The problem is, the economy is like a huge oil tanker, making adjustments now will only affect it's positioning miles ahead from now.
Yessir, Captain Bernanke f'ed up. He hit reef and the resulting oil slick will soon be killing the cute, innocent seals.
And now he's asking Congress and Little Bush to bail him out by offering tax cuts and injecting money to save the financial institutions who are being hit hard by the spillover from the subprime mortgage fiasco.
So what to do now. I'm a peon so my opinion on the subject doesn't have any clout, but I do believe that we should not focus on what happened, but concentrate all of our efforts on the problem at hand and how to fix it. Meaning, help the people who were told they could afford their subprime mortgages when in actuality they couldn't. It's their blood, sweat and tears that made this country what it is, don't punish them for being tricked.
Again, the Economy is going to go into a recession, it's inevitable. But we still can prevent this recession from being the largest in U.S. history and quite possibly a 2nd Great Depression. Yes I've said it, DEPRESSION. It scares me to say it, just like a hyena saying Mufasa, but you have to admit it's not a complete impossibility!
With this in mind, I reluctantly admit that I am thoroughly EXCITED.* History has shown that after the worst recessions that the U.S. Economy has faced, the market has responded with the best bull-markets soon after. I think camistocks has put it best in his CAPS blog. I highly suggest one to read it for some consolation to this economic disgust.
*According to past data, a good indicator of when the economy is recovering from a recession is the Unemployment Rate. As rates go up, the market goes down and vice versa. According to NorthernTrust.com, the average S&P 500 decline was about 20% with each U.S. recession, lasting about 6-9 months on average.
Yessir, Captain Bernanke f'ed up. He hit reef and the resulting oil slick will soon be killing the cute, innocent seals.
And now he's asking Congress and Little Bush to bail him out by offering tax cuts and injecting money to save the financial institutions who are being hit hard by the spillover from the subprime mortgage fiasco.
So what to do now. I'm a peon so my opinion on the subject doesn't have any clout, but I do believe that we should not focus on what happened, but concentrate all of our efforts on the problem at hand and how to fix it. Meaning, help the people who were told they could afford their subprime mortgages when in actuality they couldn't. It's their blood, sweat and tears that made this country what it is, don't punish them for being tricked.
Again, the Economy is going to go into a recession, it's inevitable. But we still can prevent this recession from being the largest in U.S. history and quite possibly a 2nd Great Depression. Yes I've said it, DEPRESSION. It scares me to say it, just like a hyena saying Mufasa, but you have to admit it's not a complete impossibility!
With this in mind, I reluctantly admit that I am thoroughly EXCITED.* History has shown that after the worst recessions that the U.S. Economy has faced, the market has responded with the best bull-markets soon after. I think camistocks has put it best in his CAPS blog. I highly suggest one to read it for some consolation to this economic disgust.
*According to past data, a good indicator of when the economy is recovering from a recession is the Unemployment Rate. As rates go up, the market goes down and vice versa. According to NorthernTrust.com, the average S&P 500 decline was about 20% with each U.S. recession, lasting about 6-9 months on average.
Friday, January 04, 2008
DOH!
I sensed a downward spiral after the recent stall so should have ejected but I decided to ride it through...and CRASHED...
Just as I feared, my once favorite stock CBLI, plummeted 60% on news that they did not win their DoD contract bid. I WAS up 18% on the stock w/ the few shares I had repurchased, and that turned into a 42% loss or so. It hurt my overall portfolio total quite a bit (couple percentage points) Didn't help that the overall market is in a downward trend. I'm just glad I still wasn't invested as heavily as I was before, therefore minimizing even HUGER losses (see previous post for more info).
Still, I'm quite upset since I forgot to put a trailing stop on CBLI, especially since I had my previous t-stop trigger right before their initial slide from $12 to $7. Being up on a volatile stock gives you that much more incentive to put a t-stop on it, especially since the sudden cancellation of the year end meeting was a huge WTF indicator for me. But alas, I forgot, and paid for it. Lesson learned.
*When purchasing speculative, volatile stocks such as biotechs or IPOs (that I highly suggest NOT to purchase unless it's play money that you don't mind losing), always remember to add a trailing stop (I personally use a percentage stop) to minimize huge losses. Depending on volatility and market cap of the stock, adjust your stop to vary on the amount you are willing to lose (the more volatility and lower market cap will require a higher t-stop percentage).
On the bright side, it did make me wonder who the contract was awarded to, so I did a little research and found out that Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) won the DoD RFP, most likely because their drug (Prochymal) is already in the FDA Fast Track Phase III trials, whereas CBLI's Protectan CBLB502 is only in Phase II. So, I did a little research, liked what I read and initiated a small position in the company. Hopefully I can make back some of the gains lost if OSIR can win the Department of Health and Human Services RFP as well. Again, another speculative pick that I'm willing to lose money on so REMEMBER YOUR T-STOPS!!!
Just as I feared, my once favorite stock CBLI, plummeted 60% on news that they did not win their DoD contract bid. I WAS up 18% on the stock w/ the few shares I had repurchased, and that turned into a 42% loss or so. It hurt my overall portfolio total quite a bit (couple percentage points) Didn't help that the overall market is in a downward trend. I'm just glad I still wasn't invested as heavily as I was before, therefore minimizing even HUGER losses (see previous post for more info).
Still, I'm quite upset since I forgot to put a trailing stop on CBLI, especially since I had my previous t-stop trigger right before their initial slide from $12 to $7. Being up on a volatile stock gives you that much more incentive to put a t-stop on it, especially since the sudden cancellation of the year end meeting was a huge WTF indicator for me. But alas, I forgot, and paid for it. Lesson learned.
*When purchasing speculative, volatile stocks such as biotechs or IPOs (that I highly suggest NOT to purchase unless it's play money that you don't mind losing), always remember to add a trailing stop (I personally use a percentage stop) to minimize huge losses. Depending on volatility and market cap of the stock, adjust your stop to vary on the amount you are willing to lose (the more volatility and lower market cap will require a higher t-stop percentage).
On the bright side, it did make me wonder who the contract was awarded to, so I did a little research and found out that Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) won the DoD RFP, most likely because their drug (Prochymal) is already in the FDA Fast Track Phase III trials, whereas CBLI's Protectan CBLB502 is only in Phase II. So, I did a little research, liked what I read and initiated a small position in the company. Hopefully I can make back some of the gains lost if OSIR can win the Department of Health and Human Services RFP as well. Again, another speculative pick that I'm willing to lose money on so REMEMBER YOUR T-STOPS!!!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
