Wednesday, December 26, 2007

Happy Holidays!

Nothing much has happened since October, I wanted to wait out the market volatility for awhile before buying more positions throughout my portfolio. I did sell a lot of the stocks that didn't move to my liking last month (DEEP, SSW, RVBD, GS). It's a good thing I did too, both RVBD and GS plummeted soon after reporting so I definitely breathed a sigh of relieve that I was able to lock a small short-term profit.

*Although I am for the most part long term, if a stock is stagnant through market upswings, it tells me that either investors are seeing something that I'm not, or it's just not popular right now and it may be a good idea to invest your money elsewhere for now. DEFINITELY keep it on your watchlist.

I also place some trailing stops on Cleveland Biolabs (CBLI) since they were supposed to report the DoD contract award by the end of the year, and still has yet to happen. And then they went ahead and cancelled their year-end meeting. This raised a red flag with me and other investors, and the stock dropped 22% in a week! It's not looking too good for the company, I have a bad feeling that delay means denial. I did repurchase the stock after the dip, but at about 1/6 the amount I was previously invested in. This is money that I'm willing to lose so I don't advise anyone to be heavily invested. Like I said before, this was a purely speculative short-term play. Ah well, you win some and you lose some.

I do have a new member recently added to my portfolio, the company is called Amedisys Inc (AMED). Amedisys specializes in home health care/hospice services and is a one of the largest in the U.S. They were recently featured by The Motley Fool Stock Advisor, but i waited awhile since the market was going negatively sour at the time. BIG MISTAKE. AMED jumped 20% during the down days, which shows to me that this could be a great U.S. economic hedge. I think similar to FSLR, the competitive advantage for this company is it's HUGE size, they're over twice the market cap of it's closest competitor. With a 5 year PEG ratio of 1.18, the stock is still looking quite enticing. Again, buy in thirds and especially since the PEG is a little higher after the recent run-up.

*When looking for undervalued companies, first examine their balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow. Low debt is a definite must for me. Once you've decided that you would like to purchase the company, a great indicator of WHEN to purchase is by its PEG ratio (0.50 or less is undervalued, 0.50 - 1.00 is fairly valued, 1.00-1.30 is richly valued, and 1.30 and up is overvalued).