Happiness is for wimps...

Reconstruction

2011-09-15T08:25:00.003-10:00

With all the market volatility and it's crazy ups and downs, I've decided to retire my sea legs and rest on some stable ground. No, I'm not selling everything and buying CDs, but what I will be doing is restructuring my portfolio to about (5) core stocks. Currently in mind is stocks that I already own (GE, GOOG, ABT), and one new (to me at least) behemoth. This stock is Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) which I don't really need to delve into since it's beast and everyone knows it.

As you can see I have strong performers in favorable growth industries, Abbott Laboratories (Medical/Pharma), Google (Technology), Exxon (Energy), General Electric (Conglomerate aka EVERYTHING). I haven't decided on my 5th category though, it's a tie between non-cyclical and a Financial, but I haven't put in the work to decide which has the most potential. Bank of New York Melon (NYSE: BK) and US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) are strong contenders, but I also really love Coca Cola (NYSE: KO). It's my daily addiction so why not invest in it right?!?

Over the next 6 months I'll be slowly selling my current positions and cutting them over to my core 5, buying on dips and in thirds (although may be 4ths and 5ths now).

Puppy Market

2011-08-12T09:55:00.006-10:00

This past week has been a tumultuous one which reminds me of a young puppy...it threw up it's food (Monday), then it ate some of it back up (Tuesday), gagged and threw up even more (Wednesday)! Finally ate a bunch of it back up (yesterday) and now is trying to hold it down (today).

As gross as it sounds to watch a puppy do this, watching the market the last 5 days and trying to maintain ones composure is as equally challenging.

I'm still long on most of my stocks, definitely will be increasing my thirds on blue-chip, tried and true dividend stocks. More to come soon when I have time (Sorry, it's still baseball season!). Hang in there...

Crisis in Japan

2011-03-28T14:20:00.005-10:00

So Japan's Fukushima Daichi nuclear plant reactors' suffered through a huge earthquake, a massive tsunami, had their cooling systems fail, a partial meltdown, and now their protective cement enclosure seems to have been compromised, potentially releasing harmful radiation into the water table...

However, out of the ashes has arisen a glimmer of hope...CLEVELAND BIOLABS INC! (NASDAQ: CBLI) Yes, they are back in the news and on a tear! And once again I've initiated a position in them. And once again it was at peak! haha. I can never win. I'm long on this one though, lots of press is good press when it comes to biotechs. Hopefully they can get a lot more when the U.S. military starts to help (and hopefully utilize the CBLB502 vaccine).

Spring Clean-up (Part 1)

2011-01-27T14:49:00.004-10:00

It's been awhile since my last post, here's a few moves that I've made, specifics to come later when I have more time...

Bought ABT, AMAT, ALTR, COH, KBE, KRE, MO, MSFT

Bought and sold VFH, JKHY, MUB, ERF

Sold 1/3 PGF.

to be continued...

Bottoms up!

2010-09-29T07:58:00.002-10:00

So they've officially announced we're out of the recession, BUT we may go back into a second recession if we aren't careful! I'm not sure what that means, but it sounds like they're saying that they might be wrong about predicting the end and covering their a$$ just in case.

That said, I'm still in the market and still trudging along. It's been awhile since my last post, but there's been nothing much to post. My KRE play hasn't been doing well, but I'm still holding firm in my belief the regional banking industry will pick back up.

As the market has changed, so has my stock picking strategies. I'm no longer looking for the big breakout stocks, right now I'm simply looking for high dividend yield stocks, similar to my PGF and other dividend stocks to my portfolio.

My latest position has been in Enerplus Resources Fund (NYSE: ERF), which I believe is an Natural Gas ETF. Haha, I really just bought this on a whim. My main criteria was high dividend yield at a monthly payout and in a relatively strong investment area with upward potential. I was torn between a real estate ETF and this one. So let's see how it pans out. I bought my first third today and will be adding this to my RL portfolio shortly. I'm also reinvesting the dividend to account for any market fluctuations.

Tumult Thursday

2010-05-18T09:12:00.004-10:00

With all the turmoil that's been going on in the market reasonable, surprisingly I'm very calm and collective about the entire situation. I'm still checking my stocks everyday, but it's mostly after the market has closed. I think the up's and down's of the market may cause a few to act irrationally and buy/sell at the wrong times.

Case in point, the dark Thursday a few weeks ago when the market crashed horribly and inexplicably for a brief half hour or so (I actually saw the actual 900 point dip totally by total chance and thought Google Finance was broken!) My immediate reaction was to buy buy buy! But unfortunately my brokerage website had some high volume usage problems so I missed the opportunity to "strengthen" my current positions. But of course, the common investor sold at this time in panic and thousands of people lost a lot of money that day once the dust settled. I would hate to be the one triggering a market price sell order at that exact moment when the market dipped! Lesson learned in many ways.

*Always do limit orders even if it's at market price to avoid inexplicable swings in pricing.

Batcat!

2010-04-06T08:37:00.002-10:00

Morningstar ETF of the year

2010-03-31T07:42:00.002-10:00

I hope I won't start making a habit of this, but it's been a long time between the last three posts! In my defense, there hasn't been much happening financially for me. I have been dabbling in some small shares of our local bank, Central Pacific Financial (NYSE: CPF), but it's a penny stock and is just a total gamble to help me muddle through this stagnant bull market. Again, CPF is purely for entertainment, even though I'm up 32% since buying in early March, I don't count this as a real stock pick, esp since it represents less than .3% of my total portfolio!

My latest, serious, stock pick is an ETF. It's called SPDR KBW Regional Banking (NYSE: KRE). Morningstar has deemed this the top ETF of 2010 and they do make some strong buying points. Regional banking has been lagging behind the bigger national banks, so it's about time they "catch up". Also, it's rumored that now that the bigger banks are healthier, we may see more Federal bailout monies trickling down to the smaller lenders. Hopefully this is so and we'll see multi-bagger gains on the sector. I've already initiated my second "third", since my first position was already up 15% and I don't see a downward trend anytime soon.

Long hiatus

2009-12-18T14:11:00.003-10:00

Didn't realize that it's been almost 6 months since my last post! Not much has been going on, bought some Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) for it's nice 3% dividend. Vodafone is an international play who also owns 49% of Verizon Wireless. Being a former Verizon employee, I can tell you that VZ Wireless basically supports the other side of the business (internet, home phone, IPTV, etc). This is basically a long-term savings stock for me since savings interest rates has dropped well below 2%. Yuck.

I've also purchased Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) after they had announced their purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corporation with a 50-1 stock split. I'm totally playing investor psychology on this one. A $60 share price for BRK-B stock is irresistible and hopefully will open up new money from smaller investors like me! =)

OMTR SOLD!!!

2009-09-15T13:54:00.006-10:00

BREAKING NEWS, Omniture (NASDAQ: OMTR) is being sold to Adobe Systems Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE)! It was quite ironic since I was discussing my portfolio with my coworker this morning and mentioned to him that it'll be awhile until I sell OMTR since I'm still down 17% on it, unless they get sold of course...and they did! How awesome is that!? So I'm selling, as much as I like Adobe, I'm gonna take my gains from the sale and probably try and sneak back into Adobe later on at a lower price. Let's cross our fingers that it doesn't sky-rocket!

Super saver

2009-05-29T08:44:00.003-10:00

So I got an email from my bank, HSBC, regarding an interest rate adjustment. Wasn't surprised by this but I did enjoy the results of a recent survery that they have done. Here it is:

Active Savers, a group of people characterized by their dedication to saving, entered the recession better prepared than others because of their savings lifestyle. They have not had to take drastic measures to adapt to uncertain financial times and are less likely to have had to cut back on spending, eating out, and making large purchases.
For more than half (57 percent) of Active Savers, learning to save started at a young age. Putting money away is a value their parents instilled in them (73 percent).
Savings comes first for nearly half (46 percent) of Active Savers. They’re willing to make sacrifices in order to be able to put money away.
Overall, a majority of the population has not allowed the economy to hamper their savings plans—81 percent have been able to put the same amount away, if not more.

Some very profound information right there...I'd like to thank my parents for teaching me the value of money at an early age. I had no allowance so I had to make the most of what I had!

On a side note, I've sold my positions on ISRG and NOV. I still think those companies rock but my initial positions (which I did not initiate any new thirds on its way down) are down more than 50%. This will take at least a 100% gain to get my money back anytime soon so I've decided to end my commitment and take advantage of the tax break!

So with this extra cash on hand, I've decided to gamble a bit and bought some shares in MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM). I think the gambling industry (i.e. Las Vegas) has been hit really hard by this recession, but will eventually springboard back. Hopefully, I'll come out with some nice gains in the process. Again, my position in MGM is less than 1% of my total portfolio value so please treat it as I do. I wouldn't risk my entire life savings on it since there still be more downside to that industry.

POWER UP!

2009-05-04T09:55:00.004-10:00

So on Friday, I decided I wanted a dividend-heavy, large cap, preferrably wide-moat stock and couldn't decide between General Electric (NYSE: GE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) or INTC (NASDAQ: INTC). After much debate, number comparisons, and a lot of hair pulling, I decided to get none of them! haha.

Instead, I purchased an international ETF that I found on SeekingAlpha called Powershares International Dividend Achievers (NYSEArca: PID). I'm not going to get into the ratios and what not on this ETF, but a few interesting things attracted me to the ETF besides it's holdings portfolio:

PID has a higher YTD market return than most of the dividend ETFs I analyzed.
PID also has an above-average yield of 6.23%.

Of course, this isn't as amazing as the dividend-heavy ETF, Powershares Financial Preferred (NYSEArca: PGF), which boasts a hefty 15.88% yield. But, I'm not the type to put all of my eggs in one basket and I've been on a PGF shopping spree in both my Roth IRA and investment accounts. Although I do believe that the Financial sector has the possibility of making the most gains in the next 3 years, but I think I'll sleep better at night knowing that it isn't making up 30% of my investment portfolio.

*Tip: When investing long-term (3-5 years) for your Roth IRA, it's a good idea to focus on dividend-heavy ETFs or large cap stocks with high yield percentages (preferably with wide-moats). This will be advantageous to you since the dividends are paid out tax free, allowing you to reinvest in the stock or use for other stock purchases and won't be deducted in the future when you withdraw from the fund.

SOLD!

2009-04-22T09:04:00.004-10:00

Sold WFC yesterday as planned, shoulda waited a day since it's up a little more, but it's ok. I'm also hoping to sell CREE and possibly OMTR, but I'm in no rush since I don't mind waiting to get back to even. Don't get me wrong, all are still solid companies, I just need the capital to shift my portfolio to a more dividend-intensive focus. I'm really excited to see how the credit companies fare this earnings season with all the recent pull-backs in the credit market by the big banks...

Megadeth!

2009-04-14T00:26:00.006-10:00

My future sugar momma, Meredith Whitney, said this latest Financial Sector bull run will be short lived. According to a recent Forbes article, she still believes that the top banks still have not properly reserved against greater than expected losses in home prices. Her forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are much lower than other analysts' estimates. However, she does believe that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) will meet Wall Street's estimates.

A more detailed explanation her Financials analysis are found on this Forbes video interview. It's a bit long but I highly recommend it. She provides some excellent insights on the future of our country's economy.

For me, the last time she called Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) overbought, I went the opposite way and bought (back in December). DOH. I only hit the black with the recent WFC announcement! I'll listen to the expert this time, and plan to ride this supposed bear market "bull rally" with trailing stops on my Financials. I still think there will be a Financial bear run (later this year), so hopefully around 3rd/4th qtr I'll pull the trigger again to get back into the Financials...let's see how it turns out!

What's up WHAT'S UP?!

2009-04-02T09:01:00.006-10:00

Just got back from the last round of vacations (Japan, Tahoe, Japan again) so I've been out of the tumultous market for a bit. While I was in Japan (the 2nd time), I did buy some Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT). This was an emotional play for me, but I just couldn't pass up Microsoft at $18! It's looking good so far.

I also purchased my 2nd third of General Electric (NYSE: GE) yesterday. I'm not convinced that the market is going up from here, but I figure it wouldn't hurt to buy GE at $10. I'm already prepared to buy more at $6 if it gets that low again (limit orders are IN!). I also plan to increase positions in PGF and rebuy PM. The yield on PM is looking very very yummy.

The market did great in March and is off to a good start this month. However, the third week of April will be the true test on whether this is a fools rally or not. GE, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), and Citigroup (NYSE: C) all report during that time. We already know that the numbers will be bad, but maybe the outlook will have a bit of a silver lining on the horizon?! Let's hope so.

Man tries to pay bill with spider drawing

2009-02-26T17:02:00.001-10:00

*This is from awhile back but I just had to post it for the archives...

Below is the complete email conversation that Adelaide man David Thorne claims he had with a utility company chasing payment of an overdue bill.

From: Jane Gilles
Date: Wednesday 8 Oct 2008 12.19pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Overdue account

Dear David,
Our records indicate that your account is overdue by the amount of $233.95. If you have already made this payment please contact us within the next 7 days to confirm payment has been applied to your account and is no longer outstanding.

Yours sincerely, Jane Gilles

From: David Thorne
Date: Wednesday 8 Oct 2008 12.37pm
To: Jane Gilles
Subject: Re: Overdue account

Dear Jane,
I do not have any money so am sending you this drawing I did of a spider instead. I value the drawing at $233.95 so trust that this settles the matter.

Regards, David.

From: Jane Gilles
Date: Thursday 9 Oct 2008 10.07am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Overdue account

Dear David,
Thankyou for contacting us. Unfortunately we are unable to accept drawings as payment and your account remains in arrears of $233.95. Please contact us within the next 7 days to confirm payment has been applied to your account and is no longer outstanding.

Yours sincerely, Jane Gilles

From: David Thorne
Date: Thursday 9 Oct 2008 10.32am
To: Jane Gilles
Subject: Re: Overdue account

Dear Jane,
Can I have my drawing of a spider back then please.

Regards, David.

From: Jane Gilles
Date: Thursday 9 Oct 2008 11.42am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Overdue account

Dear David,
You emailed the drawing to me. Do you want me to email it back to you?

Yours sincerely, Jane Gilles

From: David Thorne
Date: Thursday 9 Oct 2008 11.56am
To: Jane Gilles
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Overdue account

Dear Jane,

Yes please.

Regards, David.

From: Jane Gilles
Date: Thursday 9 Oct 2008 12.14pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Overdue account

Attached

From: David Thorne
Date: Friday 10 Oct 2008 09.22am
To: Jane Gilles
Subject: Whose spider is that?

Dear Jane, Are you sure this drawing of a spider is the one I sent you? This spider only has seven legs and I do not feel I would have made such an elementary mistake when I drew it.

Regards, David.

From: Jane Gilles
Date: Friday 10 Oct 2008 11.03am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Whose spider is that?

Dear David, Yes it is the same drawing. I copied and pasted it from the email you sent me on the 8th. David your account is still overdue by the amount of $233.95. Please make this payment as soon as possible.

Yours sincerely, Jane Gilles

From: David Thorne
Date: Friday 10 Oct 2008 11.05am
To: Jane Gilles
Subject: Automated Out of Office Response

Thankyou for contacting me. I am currently away on leave, traveling through time and will be returning last week.

Regards, David.

From: David Thorne
Date: Friday 10 Oct 2008 11.08am
To: Jane Gilles
Subject: Re: Re: Whose spider is that?

Hello, I am back and have read through your emails and accept that despite missing a leg, that drawing of a spider may indeed be the one I sent you. I realise with hindsight that it is possible you rejected the drawing of a spider due to this obvious limb ommission but did not point it out in an effort to avoid hurting my feelings. As such, I am sending you a revised drawing with the correct number of legs as full payment for any amount outstanding. I trust this will bring the matter to a conclusion.

Regards, David.

From: Jane Gilles
Date: Monday 13 Oct 2008 2.51pm
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Whose spider is that?

Dear David, As I have stated, we do not accept drawings in lei of money for accounts outstanding. We accept cheque, bank cheque, money order or cash. Please make a payment this week to avoid incurring any additional fees.

Yours sincerely, Jane Gilles

From: David Thorne
Date: Monday 13 Oct 2008 3.17pm
To: Jane Gilles
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Whose spider is that?

I understand and will definately make a payment this week if I remember. As you have not accepted my second drawing as payment, please return the drawing to me as soon as possible. It was silly of me to assume I could provide you with something of completely no value whatsoever, waste your time and then attach such a large amount to it.

Regards, David.

From: Jane Gilles
Date: Tuesday 14 Oct 2008 11.18am
To: David Thorne
Subject: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Whose spider is that?

Attached

broke as a joke

2009-02-03T09:57:00.004-10:00

I just got back from Tokyo, Japan last week, it was great seeing first hand the culture that directly influenced the way I was raised. Besides the part where I got sick (caught a bit of the flu epidemic that's going on there right now), it was an excellent experience and a 100% definite do-over next year. If I have the money of course, since I've been maxing out my 401k, which I highly recommend everyone should do since the market is really low (also since this year's max contribution has been increased to $16.5k). So I'm hurting a bit in terms of having petty cash to spend, but it's all part of the plan to retire early, comfortably. The Tahoe trip that I'm taking this week isn't going to help my savings growth though!

Anyway, I sold my PM position to buy some Wells Fargo Company (NYSE: WFC) a few weeks ago. Both are up but I think I'm better off with WFC. After this storms subside I agree with Morningstar that the Financial Sector will have the most gains in the next 3-5 years (which is a gimme since they've been taking the most losses in the past year!). I also increased my position in PGF today. Let's hope for a nice boost in Financials while I'm in Tahoe ignoring the market! =)

Credit Card Captain Crunch

2008-12-19T11:43:00.006-10:00

I sold my entire Visa (NYSE: V) position today for a small loss. The recent credit crisis is making me a bit apprehensive and I especially do not like the fact that companies are pulling credit from individuals (see previous post). This means less credit card use and less transactions which in turn equals less profit for Visa. Global economic downturn is never a good thing.

Visa is still a great company with a decently huge competitive moat therefore I would still recommend the stock. But I did have a little too much allocated into Visa and feel that they are much better, cheaper companies out there that are basically selling for HUGE HUGE discounts. General Electric (NYSE: GE) at $12 was such a STEAL, but alas, I had no capital on hand to purchase it at that price. Now THAT was frustrating!

I'm still expecting some more bad news, so I'm keeping a keen eye out on the unemployment rate. To me, it's a good indicator on how the economy is fairing. If I miss out on 10-20% in overall growth, I'm fine with that since I'm still long-term in majority of my holdings.

The sexiest woman alive (to me)...

2008-12-03T00:24:00.005-10:00

Meredith Whitney, one of the few people to predict the current bear market, is my current crush right now. She is definitely not your stereotypical "blonde". I thought the only smart blondes were yellow labradors! jp.

I'm still not paying much attention to the market, but recently a friend of mine posted a link on Facebook of a very interesting video of her current opinion regarding the financial market (and the overall market in general). I will be very weary of putting in additional thirds at this time, especially since I don't believe the bottom has hit. The S&P at 741 hurt a lot, but there is a strong possibility that it won't be absolute bottom because of the current liquidity crisis. I guess only time will tell when to really get back in (Christmas sales, 1st/2nd qtr reports/adjusted outlooks, length of this deep recession).

Like I said before (and Buffett, Cramer, etc), there is no way to accurately predict absolute bottom or absolute top. The best solution is to buy in thirds (whether it's on dips, bad/good news, time periods, etc). The main thing is to spread out positions in stocks with huge competitive moats and hold for the long term (3-5 years).

My strategy: Continue to distract myself and try as hard as possible not to look at my brokerage account everyday (occasionally is okay) until 2nd or 3rd quarter of next year, saving as much money until then to pour into the market. =)

quickie post

2008-10-20T11:41:00.003-10:00

Started a position in General Electric (GE) and increased my Visa (V) position by another third last week. I think this might be rock bottom (Buffett says it's time to buy U.S.), but my coworker and I agree it's going to be an up and down market for the next year or more prolly. Hopefully we'll never hit below 8k for the DJIA!

blalalalalala

2008-09-19T14:20:00.003-10:00

Hmm, i haven't posted in awhile. But I haven't done anything since that while. Yes, I missed the up and downs of the past week, in fact, i haven't even looked at my portfolio in almost a month! I'm sort of glad I didn't, I would definitely be looking on the balding side (from pulling my hair out!). So the question is, what to do, what to do!? Will the market rebound? Is this bottom? Should I sell and take the losses while it's still up?!!

I personally am not doing anything. I'm not going to try and play the volatility, especially in the finance market. My reasoning? If I looked at PGF earlier this week I might have actually considered selling and taking a huge 30% loss. Which would have then have rebounded and I would realize that if I stayed in it I'd be almost at even....which would then result with me walking out in front of a fast moving bus. lol.

The lesson learned here is to simply trust one's system, set proper tolerance levels and most importantly being consistent and sticking to it! Comparing oneself to the S&P 500 or Russell indexes definitely helps in justifying your losses. Heck if they're doing worst than my portfolio, i feel great! Even if I'm in the red....

Sell time..

2008-08-12T14:18:00.004-10:00

I always have this problem about when to sell. So today, I'm just doing it. Not thinking about the what ifs or could have beens. I finally broke even on Ingersol Rand (IR) and is by far one of my weaker stocks (in terms of growth potential). I'm going to use the sale from it for a new investment pick or expanding a third on existing picks.

Amedisys (AMED) got pummeled today, almost 18% down with no news. I did a little research as to why the sudden drop and found a VERY interesting article from CitronResearch.com. I'm not saying that AMED is a poor company, but I am going to lock in my profits for now until the rumor mill is shutdown and emotions ease up. Hopefully I can get back in at a better position in the end as well.

On a plus note, CREE is blowing up after hours. Apparently they reported well. Let's hope for a good boost tomorrow morning...

oh my OMTR!

2008-07-23T16:33:00.002-10:00

So Google got worked last Friday, I'm most likely initiating another third on them if they should drop more. OMTR just got absolutely obliterated in after-market trading today after their earnings release....down 15%! So the question is, will I buy more OMTR?! Most likely not. I've initiated two of my three thirds on them, so I'm definitely gonna wait for a larger hit before I "back-up the truck."

Much much better opportunities out there at this moment...

Preferred BEST!

2008-07-16T09:20:00.004-10:00

I recently pulled the trigger on this great Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that I recently discovered from an article I read on Morningstar.com. The article pretty much sums it up on why I invested in the Powershares Financial Preferred Portfolio ETF (PGF). I really wanted to get into the financial sector since it's dropped so heavily, but was fearful about more negative news and as a result more downward sloping charts. PGF basically hedges me against that since it purchase preferred stock.*

*Preferred stock is basically a stock that acts like a bond. If a company were to go bankrupt, bondholders would be paid first and then preferred stockholders. Common stockholders would be last, and normally they get paid ZERO.

So why an ETF? Choosing which company would pull through this U.S. mortgage crisis is like throwing darts at a dart board! Fortunately PGF hedges me against that. Yes, the gains may not be as great, but ETF significantly lowers my risk and may still return some decent gains as long as the overall sector does well. Also, the low expense fees (compared to that of most mutual funds) is niiiiiiice.

ENERGY OVERLOAD!!!

2008-07-08T08:13:00.003-10:00

Just sold my energy stocks, it's a little late for it since it's been "dropping like it's hot" recently. I think I'll be staying away from FSLR from now on, I've made nice profits off of them in the short term, but I believe companies such as Nanosolar may win them out in the long run. I think going for an ETF such as QCLN will be a better play for me in the future.

I will definitely be repurchasing ATW in the future though, I really like this company and it doesn't hurt that it's a TMFSA recommendation. Again, the energy sector is out of favor at the moment and I will be re-appropriating those funds to better investments.

Let's hope for a good earnings season, but I have a bad feeling it'll be gloomy (look at VMW today, EEK!).

blah la la la la la la

2008-07-07T09:03:00.004-10:00

I'm trying my best to ignore the portfolio today. My dreams from last week have yet to materialize, maybe I shouldn't have told anyone about them until they came true! I've literally resorted to actually doing some work at work (I'm usually tracking my portfolio news for the majority of the morning), looking at non-stock related sites (such as this), and of course, writing in this blog. Oh well, let the madness ensue. I'm still seriously considering buying NVDA, but I didn't have a chance to crunch the numbers this weekend (lucky for me they're down a little more today).

Watchlist update...

2008-07-03T14:18:00.005-10:00

I've been having dreams about my portfolio recently, getting 1-2% gains nightly. In last night's dream it was up 7% in just one day! But alas, the exact opposite has happened (I'm obviously no psychic!).

As a matter of fact, it's pretty darn ugly out there at the moment (like my ex-gf with no make-up, eek!). I've been only watching the news feeds and playing CAPS the past couple of weeks, basically distracting myself to help me ignore the daily horror!

Seriously, my portfolio has fallen quite significantly with the latest dip. We're even past the lows hit earlier this March (Victor was right, I hate him). What to do, what to do!?!?! My conscious is telling me to sell everything and lock in the measly 2% gain that I'm still up. So I do the exact opposite. I'm updating my watchlists (mainly with long-term value plays) and will prolly trigger thirds in existing positions.

A couple of suggestions to watch, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) was hammered hard today on poor Q2 earnings outlook. They also screwed up their packaging and some pre-gen cards were damaged during shipments. Not very good press out there on them at the moment, but these are the exact opportunities I look for when determining an optimal entry point. Nvidia has surpassed ATI as the dominant player in the video graphics market, and I see a Intel vs AMD relationship between the two top companies. I'm doing some number crunching this weekend to see if this 30% drop this weekend was justified.

Another watchlist add would be Coach (NYSE: COH). Retail has been hit hard and although COH is increasing market share in Asia, their stock has been bent over and taken it hard. Again, a little more research won't hurt before triggering, but I might be initiating my last third in COH very soon.

Finally, I really like how Lloyd's TSB Group plc (NYSE: LYG) is looking from a valuation perspective. Although an international play and not tied to subprime mortgages, it's been punished all the same since it belongs to the same sector as Bank of America, Citigroup, etc. They've yet to cut their dividend so I think we'll be seeing some nice margins even if the price remains stagnant. Besides a dividend cut, global-wide economic downturn is also a concern therefore I'm keeping this play on the bench for now. I'd like to see how Great Britain is affected by the U.S. recession before taking a swing here (If you ever noticed, CAPS is like my Triple A baseball and my portfolio is the MLB).

Well, that's enough homework to do for the long Independence Day weekend, enjoy the fireworks everyone!

Gaga for Google

2008-07-01T19:22:00.002-10:00

I just bought my second third of Google today. Price was decent and I'm only up 15% from my previous buy. I'm hoping for an upbeat earnings report, if it's the opposite then I plan on initiating my last third in this great company.

Amen for AMED!

2008-06-26T08:19:00.002-10:00

I'm seeing blood red in my portfolio today, so I bought more. =) AMED wasn't down a lot but I think it's at a good buy point right now so I initiated my second third in it. It's still fairly undervalued and if it drops back down to it's March lows (mid 30s), I'll definitely trigger my last third. Stay the course here and dust off your watch lists...deals will continue to pop up if this dip continues!

Trigger Time!

2008-06-15T11:43:00.005-10:00

So if anyone's been paying attention to my KinzoRLP CAPS profile, they'll notice that I've made a couple more position adds to my personal portfolio.

I bought my second third in Canadian National Railway (CNI) for my Roth IRA. They've been getting beaten down quite a bit recently due to fears of a U.S. slowdown. History has proven, however, that industrial railways are a solid recession-proof industry.

The second company that I initiated a small position in is called Ingersoll-Rand. Yes, this is out of my norm, large-cap blue-chip type stock is definitely too slow for me. But similar to CNI, there's a lot of deals in the industrial sector due to market pessimism, getting into a large-cap industrial play was exactly what I've been waiting for. Why? Well, ever since they announced to merge with Trane, I've wanted to get into the company. As with a lot of the companies out there, I believe they're at a great buy point (PEG ratio under 1).

Also, I'm testing the Dow Theory on its concept that stock market averages must confirm each other. To summarize, if the the manufacturers are producing more goods, then the transportation industry will have to ramp up as well. The transportation industry is at an all-time high therefore I feel that the manufacturers will need to catch up. I'm definitely not a technical trader, but I do believe it definitely helps in determining optimal entry points.

Calling in the professionals...

2008-06-12T11:04:00.003-10:00

Yes, the title is what it is. I'm actually getting a Financial Advisor. In fact, I'm getting two! My late grandparents left me some money and when I graduated from college it was passed on to me by my father. The same FA that has handled my granparents and parents account was handling this, but I think his time is over, and his conservative approach isn't quite what I'm looking for at my age.

What's interesting is that I now have two advisors with very different perspectives and investment style approaches. One of them prefers iShares and ETF type funds, whereas the other focuses mostly on mutual funds for his clients. And these are loaded mutual funds too. I'm actually a mutual fund hater, and the fact that they're front-loaded as well makes me even sicker to the stomach! But I did this mostly for the learning experience and also as a gauge against my own investing abilities. Hopefully I can get rid of the gag reflex that I'm getting whenever I think about the huge upfront costs and the yearly brokerage fee. Eww. I am happier with the other FA's approach and I'll post more on his style later.

I plan to also compare both advisors, and hopefully consolidate into one FA in about 3 years, depending on who does better. I'm hoping they both do really well, but I really want to actually beat both of them! Only time will tell...game on!

Shorting...

2008-06-09T11:14:00.003-10:00

So people ask me why I don't short since I seem to do well at picking crappy stocks on CAPS. Well if you look at my CAPS profile, you'll notice that most of my picks that I short are only giving me a 100 points or so max. But the picks that I've wrongly called to underperform have hit huge numbers. My biggest loser yet is Hawaiian Airlines (HA), which I underperformed and has had a HUGE +100% run since picking it. doh. Fortunately I've picked more winners than losers so far (crossing fingers!).

When buying stocks, the returns are unlimited as the stock price increases and if the stock plummets, the only losses will be what was put in to purchase the stock. With shorting, however, the exact opposite happens! Since we're betting that the company will do poorly, if the company skyrockets 10-fold, so does your loses. That said, compared to a potential gain of only 100% (if the stock price goes to zero), I don't see it being worth the risk at all.

Oil at an all time high...

2008-05-28T01:35:00.003-10:00

Oil is up, airline stocks are down huge. My friend then tells me, "Let's buy airline stocks, they're CHEAP!" And my response: "HELL NO!" Never buy airlines, don't waste your time doing the numbers, please just trust me on this one. Unless you are allergic to money and want nothing to do with it. Of course this theory does present a legitimate case for shorting opportunities, but that can be a dangerous ordeal. More to come on shorting later...

BADGER BADGER BADGER!!!

2008-05-01T16:37:00.003-10:00

Possibly the simplest, most addictive website ever (I have to view it at least once a day, don't ask why cause I don't know either!!!).

http://www.badgerbadgerbadger.com/

Bonus: Picture of someone having badgerbadgerbadger live at home! Minus the snake and mushroom. BUT there is a kitty!!!

Garmin!!!

2008-04-30T23:03:00.004-10:00

So Garmin (GRMN) reported excellent with 35% increase in total revenues compared to Q1 of last year, they experienced triple digit growth in North America and Europe as well, not to mention a 5 cent increase in EPS. And the market punished it. HARD. WHY?! Bad outlook and the expecting decrease in margins due to the lowering of their personal navigation device (PND) cost. The market HATES them. And I love them! So I increased my position in them, but unfortunately it was a few days ago so I'm down a little more than 11%. I'm still bullish though, and suggest everyone to take a good hard look at GRMN.

In other news, the oh so wonderful Fed cut sliced the prime rate again, another 0.25%. The market tanked but I'm not worried. We had two wonderful weeks of an upswing. The end of the bear market? Will the Fed keep cutting rates? I can't say, but a famous quote from the Battle of Britain does come to mind:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." - Winston Churchill

Latest buy...

2008-04-13T23:33:00.002-10:00

So I triggered on Canadian National Railway (CNI) last week. So why a railway and why Canadian?

1. Increased pricing can be passed onto the consumers.
2. Higher efficiency compared to diesel/gasoline powered trucks.
3. International hedge against the U.S. economic slowdown.
4. Canada's ports are closer to Asia and Europe.
5. Canadian $ has become more valuable than the U.S. $ in recent years.
6. Railroads are known to be a great recession hedges.
7. Increased energy prices can be passed onto the consumers.

Also, it doesn't hurt that Buffett has been investing heavily in the railroads. It's time for me to follow suit on this latest dip. So far so good!

An insightful cartoon...

2008-04-08T15:51:00.003-10:00

From IBD's Michael Ramirez...

Slacker

2008-04-07T00:45:00.009-10:00

So I've been slacking with my blog posts and I apologize, especially since a lot has happened since my last post. Pessimism has turned to optimism, and I am now on a buying binge. If anyone has tracked my RLP (Real Life Portfolio) profile on CAPS they'd see that I've been kinda nuts. Besides Philip Morris International (PM), which was a split from my Altria (MO) investment, I've opened positions in First Solar (FSLR), Google (GOOG), Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Cree Inc (CREE), and Visa (V).

I also ended my position in National Oilwell Varco (NOV), which has had a really nice run recently (the sector is really hot right now). I figured that my portfolio is a little energy heavy right now, and I'm more confident that ATW will provide much higher returns than NOV. Also, it doesn't hurt that ATW is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation! I used the NOV sale funds for my second third in OMTR, which has been neglected for some time by Mr. Market.

I don't recommend getting into FSLR and V right now, but CREE, and ATW are still at very enticing prices. PM is a great stock to get into at any price point because of it's long-term prospects and fairly large moat (e.g. Marlboro brand). Yes, it's not for anyone who believes smoking is wrong and cigarette corporations are evil, but in my opinion, everyone has a choice. Kids nowadays are warned not to smoke, but until society says it's uncool, they will still do it.

Finally, I've also entered a small position in KOF, which is Coca Cola's Latin American subsidiary. I firmly believe that Latin America is the next boom (Brazil has already blown up) despite some political turmoil there, and there's no better non-cyclical good than Coke!

Do you have the minerals?

2008-03-17T20:18:00.005-10:00

So the market has turned sour, people are screaming recession, the housing and financial industries are have been reduced to rubble, stocks are being sold off and companies are being consolidated for pennies (e.g. BSC). Yes, my portfolio has been equally punished, but to tell you the truth, I've been trying to ignore it entirely. No doubt, I've been pulling my hair out watching every position in my portfolio turn blood red, including my blue-chip Roth IRA positions!

Let there be blood.

And buy more! History has shown us that the U.S. Market has rebounded from each and every dip. It may have taken almost a year or so, but eventually it has turned itself around.

“The key is to be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.” - Warren Buffett

Keep a sharp eye on your watchlist and your Tums handy while you try to stomach the upcoming turmoil!

Almost Famous...

2008-02-28T22:49:00.006-10:00

I got an email from one of the writers at theFool.com mentioning they quoted me in one of their articles! And must I add it's for one of my more clever pitches on CAPS. Yippee! I'm famous! On a more humble note, CPL is reporting tomorrow at 12pm ET. Let's hope it BLOWS UP! (I'm 1 for 6 this earnings season, but thankfully still in the black overall). Remember to buy in thirds*! =)

*For long positions, it's an excellent strategy to buy a stock one-third of what you allocated for that stock at a time. This will allow for short-term fluctuations in the market environment (or in my case, a bad earnings report!) and will increase your chances of having a good average starting point for your long position.

An update..

2008-02-26T23:58:00.003-10:00

So we have the latest reports: inflation is off the charts, housing prices are dropping at record rates, consumer confidence is extremely pessimistic, bond insurers are teetering on the edge of losing their AAA bond rating and the market is......going UP?!

I have no clue what's going on, apparently bond insurance rating is more important than consumer outlook and inflation! On the brightside, I found an interesting company during my research of this market freakyness.

The company, CPFL Energia S.A. (CPL), is a utility company in Brazil. YES, Brazil. I recently read an article about Mr. Buffett buying the Brazilian Real since he was bearish towards the U.S. dollar. Let's face it Bernanke is letting inflation out of control and the market will soon respond. But I'm not going to get into that. Basically, in order to hedge the U.S. market going sour, I've decided to play the Brazilian economy. Yes, they have been through many crises in the past, but they have since turned the economy an entire 180 degrees. Inflation rate in Brazil has gone from 25% to less than 5% in the past 6 years!

With ever increasing energy prices, a growing economy, and high barriers to entry, this Brazilian utility should be an excellent play. Not to mention their PEG ratio is just under 1.10!

The Investor's Mind

2008-02-10T21:49:00.000-10:00

I thought this was funny but very very TRUE. Another reason to keep long on your positions and to buy in thirds!

Portfolio update..

2008-02-08T00:23:00.000-10:00

So if anyone listened to the Omniture (OMTR) conference call today, things sounded "ok". But just "ok" wasn't good enough for investors and in turn they punished OMTR down over 4% in after hours trading. If you include the -8% prior to closing, that's almost 13% overall for the day! Eeek.

I guess analysts were expecting something above their expectations, similar to how if you buy your girlfriend flowers every week they'll expect it EVERY week. The one week you forget, you get yelled at!!! Maybe OMTR should be more like AAPL and underscore their estimates every period (similar to how I NEVER get my gf's flowers!). haha, well despite the punishment they received today, I shall remain resilient and will still stay long on this position.

Another stock that I recently purchased is National Oilwell Varco (NOV). They also reported outstanding but for some reason was punished as well. I think the entire sector is falling out of favor with the hedge funds due to the recession crisis. Ah well, I'll stick with this long-term as well and try to ride out the impending storm.

For my Roth IRA I also decided to pull the trigger on PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW), which is basically an alternative energy ETF. It's been getting beaten down pretty well as the solar sector has been, so I figure it's a good time to get in. Another long position here.

I've also created a CAPS profile to reflect my real-life portfolio and it's now featured on this site as well. Enjoy!

Lake Tahoe

2008-01-27T23:16:00.002-10:00

So a bunch of my friends and I went to meet my cousin up in Tahoe earlier this month. We timed it perfectly and got there between 3 winter storms! Pretty scary driving, but overall it was a great trip and definite do-over next year (maybe back to Utah instead though).

I see stupid people...

2008-01-23T14:16:00.000-10:00

Whenever you make a bonehead mistake, just view this pic and you'll feel much better!

Speaking of which, does anyone know Mr. Bernanke's email address? Send him this so he won't feel so dumb for cutting the Fed rates and killing the U.S. dollar!

The sky IS falling!

2008-01-22T20:32:00.000-10:00

Yes, it's true, chicken little is actually right for once. For the time being of course. The sky WILL fall for a bit, Wall Street WILL be running around like chickens without heads for awhile, but as history shows the market WILL return to it's previous levels and WILL increase even further!

So anyway, yesterday, was Martin Luther King Day thus the U.S. stock markets were closed. However, the rest of the world who did NOT have the day off to celebrate MLK's b-day (which they should!) were busy freaking out about the feared U.S. recession.

So by sheer dumb luck I put in orders for Coach (COH) and Southern Copper Corporation (PCU) over the weekend (while I was at home being unsociable and my friends were partying). Well, not so much dumb luck since I felt it was a great time to start positions in both companies.

COH, which my little sister LOVES btw, is now expanding to Asia markets. The buzz is that Asia is sooooo hot right now (like Hansel hot!). So I figured I'd initiate a small position. I should have put in more!!! The market opened at well under 4% (COH at -6%) and rebounded a bit. COH ended up being up 8%! Sorry everyone, I know most of the investors are getting pummeled right now so I should definitely be happy that my oh so very small play did well.

As for PCU, it was just a greed play since their hefty dividend should be released soon. =)

The Recession is in session people!!!

2008-01-17T16:24:00.000-10:00

Although they still have yet to admit it, I'm thoroughly convinced that the U.S. economy is now in a recession. We have yet to see the jobless and inflation data, but things aren't looking good at all. And now the Fed is scrambling to make adjustments. The problem is, the economy is like a huge oil tanker, making adjustments now will only affect it's positioning miles ahead from now.

Yessir, Captain Bernanke f'ed up. He hit reef and the resulting oil slick will soon be killing the cute, innocent seals.

And now he's asking Congress and Little Bush to bail him out by offering tax cuts and injecting money to save the financial institutions who are being hit hard by the spillover from the subprime mortgage fiasco.

So what to do now. I'm a peon so my opinion on the subject doesn't have any clout, but I do believe that we should not focus on what happened, but concentrate all of our efforts on the problem at hand and how to fix it. Meaning, help the people who were told they could afford their subprime mortgages when in actuality they couldn't. It's their blood, sweat and tears that made this country what it is, don't punish them for being tricked.

Again, the Economy is going to go into a recession, it's inevitable. But we still can prevent this recession from being the largest in U.S. history and quite possibly a 2nd Great Depression. Yes I've said it, DEPRESSION. It scares me to say it, just like a hyena saying Mufasa, but you have to admit it's not a complete impossibility!

With this in mind, I reluctantly admit that I am thoroughly EXCITED.* History has shown that after the worst recessions that the U.S. Economy has faced, the market has responded with the best bull-markets soon after. I think camistocks has put it best in his CAPS blog. I highly suggest one to read it for some consolation to this economic disgust.

*According to past data, a good indicator of when the economy is recovering from a recession is the Unemployment Rate. As rates go up, the market goes down and vice versa. According to NorthernTrust.com, the average S&P 500 decline was about 20% with each U.S. recession, lasting about 6-9 months on average.

DOH!

2008-01-04T12:01:00.000-10:00

I sensed a downward spiral after the recent stall so should have ejected but I decided to ride it through...and CRASHED...

Just as I feared, my once favorite stock CBLI, plummeted 60% on news that they did not win their DoD contract bid. I WAS up 18% on the stock w/ the few shares I had repurchased, and that turned into a 42% loss or so. It hurt my overall portfolio total quite a bit (couple percentage points) Didn't help that the overall market is in a downward trend. I'm just glad I still wasn't invested as heavily as I was before, therefore minimizing even HUGER losses (see previous post for more info).

Still, I'm quite upset since I forgot to put a trailing stop on CBLI, especially since I had my previous t-stop trigger right before their initial slide from $12 to $7. Being up on a volatile stock gives you that much more incentive to put a t-stop on it, especially since the sudden cancellation of the year end meeting was a huge WTF indicator for me. But alas, I forgot, and paid for it. Lesson learned.

*When purchasing speculative, volatile stocks such as biotechs or IPOs (that I highly suggest NOT to purchase unless it's play money that you don't mind losing), always remember to add a trailing stop (I personally use a percentage stop) to minimize huge losses. Depending on volatility and market cap of the stock, adjust your stop to vary on the amount you are willing to lose (the more volatility and lower market cap will require a higher t-stop percentage).

On the bright side, it did make me wonder who the contract was awarded to, so I did a little research and found out that Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) won the DoD RFP, most likely because their drug (Prochymal) is already in the FDA Fast Track Phase III trials, whereas CBLI's Protectan CBLB502 is only in Phase II. So, I did a little research, liked what I read and initiated a small position in the company. Hopefully I can make back some of the gains lost if OSIR can win the Department of Health and Human Services RFP as well. Again, another speculative pick that I'm willing to lose money on so REMEMBER YOUR T-STOPS!!!

Happy Holidays!

2007-12-26T08:55:00.000-10:00

Nothing much has happened since October, I wanted to wait out the market volatility for awhile before buying more positions throughout my portfolio. I did sell a lot of the stocks that didn't move to my liking last month (DEEP, SSW, RVBD, GS). It's a good thing I did too, both RVBD and GS plummeted soon after reporting so I definitely breathed a sigh of relieve that I was able to lock a small short-term profit.

*Although I am for the most part long term, if a stock is stagnant through market upswings, it tells me that either investors are seeing something that I'm not, or it's just not popular right now and it may be a good idea to invest your money elsewhere for now. DEFINITELY keep it on your watchlist.

I also place some trailing stops on Cleveland Biolabs (CBLI) since they were supposed to report the DoD contract award by the end of the year, and still has yet to happen. And then they went ahead and cancelled their year-end meeting. This raised a red flag with me and other investors, and the stock dropped 22% in a week! It's not looking too good for the company, I have a bad feeling that delay means denial. I did repurchase the stock after the dip, but at about 1/6 the amount I was previously invested in. This is money that I'm willing to lose so I don't advise anyone to be heavily invested. Like I said before, this was a purely speculative short-term play. Ah well, you win some and you lose some.

I do have a new member recently added to my portfolio, the company is called Amedisys Inc (AMED). Amedisys specializes in home health care/hospice services and is a one of the largest in the U.S. They were recently featured by The Motley Fool Stock Advisor, but i waited awhile since the market was going negatively sour at the time. BIG MISTAKE. AMED jumped 20% during the down days, which shows to me that this could be a great U.S. economic hedge. I think similar to FSLR, the competitive advantage for this company is it's HUGE size, they're over twice the market cap of it's closest competitor. With a 5 year PEG ratio of 1.18, the stock is still looking quite enticing. Again, buy in thirds and especially since the PEG is a little higher after the recent run-up.

*When looking for undervalued companies, first examine their balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow. Low debt is a definite must for me. Once you've decided that you would like to purchase the company, a great indicator of WHEN to purchase is by its PEG ratio (0.50 or less is undervalued, 0.50 - 1.00 is fairly valued, 1.00-1.30 is richly valued, and 1.30 and up is overvalued).

hmm

2007-10-15T10:28:00.000-10:00

Eww, I haven't posted anything in awhile. But in my defense, nothing new has really happened. I did total my car (fortunately no one was hurt) and have since bought a new one in one month's time!

Stock wise, I have increased positions in both Garmin (GRMN) and Cleveland Biolabs (CBLI).

Garmin recently suffered a huge hit when it was announced that Navteq (NVT) was being bought out by cellular phone giant Nokia. So how does this affect GRMN you might ask? Well, Navteq is the sole provider of GPS mapping information for GRMN's GPS navigation equipment. By having a company like Nokia at the reigns, this will most likely mean GRMN will not have the premium pricing it once used to enjoy for NVT's services. Investors were really scared by this an a stampede-like bear run ensued. This is where I jumped in an almost caught it at the low point (@ $96.45) which was really sweet timing. In the long term a few cents doesn't matter, it's just icing on the cake. Since Oct 3, GRMN has been up quite nicely and almost back to it's 52-week high.

And now the poor trading on my part. I went against my rule and bought CBLI on a the tail-end of a huge bull run. I thought the institutions might have known something that wasn't released yet, possibly the announcement of DoD Contract award. So, in a panic i bought. And I bought at PEAK. So now I'm down about 12% on that position. Remember, NEVER buy Biotechs on no-news! I should have known better, but I'm holding firm on that position. I still believe CBLI has plenty of room to run, especially when the DoD contract award is announced (supposed to have been end of summer, but it's looking like it won't be till end of this year).

An Update...RVBD, FSLR, PCAR

2007-07-19T23:01:00.000-10:00

Recently, I initiated small positions in Riverbed Technology Inc (RVBD) and First Solar, Inc (FSLR) for my high-risk high-yield account, and Paccar Inc (PCAR) for my long-term Roth IRA account. I just realize that at this moment I'm actually averaging a better return in my Roth IRA (+19%) than my high-risk account (+14%)! This is mainly due to building positions in DEEP, SSW, RVBD, and FSLR, but I'm still impressed at the short-term gains on my long-term IRA stocks (+5 years).

So a little insight on my three new positions...

1) RVBD is a technology company, who specializes in WAN acceleration products for enterprise level (mid to large sized) organizations in need of high speed interconnectivity. They one several awards since 2005 for their WAN accelerator, and will probably keep winning with their ingenuity of their products. So far RVBD has blown away competitor Cisco (CSCO) and have such a huge edge, that it'll be some time until other companies can begin to recapture the huge WAN market share that RVBD has bitten a chunk into. RVBD has beat estimates the last two earnings reports, but that's about all the reports they have made since they are a recent IPO. I look forward to more great things as this company expands with the U.S. and Internationally with their proprietary WAN acceleration product (competitive moat!).

2) My second pick, FSLR, is a solar company (alternative energy). The company develops a proprietary solar panel that uses SIGNIFICANTLY less silicon than other manufacturers. They do take up a little more space since they are less efficient, however, they do see reaching solar grid parity (where it is the same price to have a solar plant vs. a coal/oil plant) in as early as 2010, depending on oil prices.

I'm really late in the game for this stock, i've been watching it ever since it killed me in CAPS and hit 40 points (almost 100% gain from when i first underperformed it). Since then i've seen it rise higher and higher, and all the time i kept thinking to myself, "ok i'll buy on the next dip," and then "no wait, it might go back down more" after it did dip. After the last rally I told myself, "screw it," and bought a third* intending to place more positions later, pending a huge drop or increase in price (which i should have done from the start!). Let's hope that the steam hasn't run out in this engine and we'll hopefully see it hit even higher highs with the next earnings report (which looks promising since they just landed 5 huge contracts worth over a billion dollars).

*Always buy in thirds when going long term, it's less risky and allows you manage swings and obtain a good average price level. For me I like to purchase on 8% or more swings (negatively) or when a stock hits its 50-day Moving Average (don't forget to pay no less than 2% commission for each position, it's just not worth it otherwise!).

Lately (this and last qtr), a lot of companies whose reported excellent revenue and growth have been PUNISHED with extreme prejudice because they've lowered future outlook/estimates (fear of a weakening U.S. economy).
A solution to this is to look for companies that are taking advantage of the U.S. economic slowdown such as PRAA (who buys defaulted loans at a huge discount and collects the debt themselves for a hefty profit) or international companies not heavily affected by the U.S. Economy such as FSLR , PCU, or my next stock pick, Paccar Inc.

3) Not only is PCAR an international company and won top awards in their industry, they've also started development of improving their trucks to be 30% more fuel efficient within the next seven years using hybrid technology. This is a HUGE selling point for these gas-guzzling beasts and shows potential for greater growth in the future. Bottom line, the company has great fundamentals, best overall ranking in its group, and not very well known. Most importantly for me from a long-term standpoint, they give a very generous special dividend at the end of the year on top of their quarterly dividend (which is almost as wonderful as a stock repurchase plan!).

I've already hit my 10 position limit* for my high-risk portfolio, but I'll be ending my position in FCFS very soon so i'll have some room for something else. I thought the poor economy would have a little better effect on FCFS's financials, but it's been a sloppy roller coaster ride for this stock for a year now and i think it will be some time before it will be able to break out of its base. I'll probably be watching from the sidelines by then, but ah well, NO REGRETS!

*It's a good idea to limit the amount of stocks you have in your portfolio at one time, having more than that will be just way too hard to keep up with! Especially for high-risk volatile stocks (although it's the slow decliners that tend to sneak by my radar and kill me the most!).

ACk!

2007-07-05T08:41:00.000-10:00

I guess I got confused and should've re-researched DEEP a little more. DEEP was NOT featured on IBD New America, but it has been a stock that I've been watching for awhile so I shall keep it. Again I'm long on this so I'll probably hold for a few years. Unless it tanks 20% or more, then i might consider selling (my tolerance level since it is an IPO) or probably buy a second position since I feel this is a decent company.

Recently, the Transportation Industry sector, primarily Shipping has been hot within the last month or so. I've decided to put some money in there and bought a small position in Seaspan Corporation (SSW) today after watching it go up 20% in the last month. SSW is a dry bulk carrier, similar to Dryships Inc (DRYS). I really like Seaspan's business plan, where they purchase ships and lease them out to companies (long-term) who can't necessarily afford to buy an entire ship or have the necessity to.

The Hong Kong-based company today has a fleet of 21 specially built cargo ships in the water, with 26 more on order. By 2010, the company expects to have 100 to 120 ships, all leased out to shipping companies. This could mean HUGE growth potential for this recent IPO (I know, this is the second IPO company that I've purchased as of recent, but hey, I'm young and you should always be a little more riskier than if you were closer to retirement).

Oh and their fundamentals are not too shabby either (only the BEST in their group!). I'm surprised that there hasn't been more Wall Street coverage (Fund Investment) on this firm, which is good for us because eventually they'll start being recognized (after a few good earnings reports) and will hopefully BLOW UP!

Go DEEP!

2007-06-28T10:26:00.000-10:00

Just bought a small position in Superior Offshore International INC (DEEP) last Friday @ $18.25 per share. DEEP is still very small (Mkt Cap $475 mil) and only recently IPO'd. I really do NOT like to invest in companies that have IPO'd in less than 1 year since volatility can be rampant in these stages (takes a few earning reports to smooth things out). But in this case I've been keeping a close eye on this stock since it was featured in IBD's New America (great source for new/underexposed companies).

DEEP specializes in subsea construction and diving services for off-shore platforms and drilling operations (oil and gas exploration) in the Gulf of Mexico. This sector is already quite hot, and with land-based oil reserves dwindling you can only expect it to get hotter. This will require a lot of construction and maintenance work and this is where DEEP comes into play. Oh and hurricanes in the region only helps DEEP since repair work is their forte as well.

Long-term growth and global expansion prospects only make this company that much more appealing for me (since I am a long-term investor), let's wait and see if this one pays off.

My CAPS Stats

2007-05-31T09:21:00.001-10:00

ARGHH!!!

2007-05-19T00:55:00.000-10:00

Ok i took a risk and did some short term trading, which you should NEVER do with money you aren't willing to lose! Cause boy did I lose!!!

So with the last few weeks, i took up positions in AVNR, MTOX, GRMN, SPN, BWLD, CMG, NOV, CRDN, JSDA, ROCM, VOLC, all on whims, either earnings or speculative. AVNR, MTOX both had huge breakouts which I tried to ride to capture some profits. The problem was i entered before a dip and my trailing stops kept hitting, when I'd rebuy, the stock would swing back to it's original position! I didn't lose much for each, maybe 8% total.

The real killers were my long-term prospects, ROCM and JSDA. both of which were STUPID plays, JSDA was an attempt to gamble earnings and ROCM was a hope that it would flip since the stock was taking at least a 40% drop in price from peak. Basically i got greedy and both stocks plummeted horribly, both losing me well over 18% each!

Ironically, it wasn't the losses that was the problem, it was the gains prior to ROCM and JSDA that did me in. I speculated good earnings reports from CMG, BWLD and SPN, which turned out to be all spectacular, CMG and BWLD both posted HUGE increases, almost 20-30% each. This gain fogged my rationale with greed, and the mistake i made was increased my positions in JSDA and ROCM once i discovered the so-called weakness in price... *sigh*

My play portfolio is now trashed and i am now hanging around even for overall return (from being 20% up). The slight market correction last week and earlier this week did NOT help at all either. Ah well, live and learn, and glad that i was rational enough not to do the same with my Roth IRA (which is still up a nice 12% return so far).

Lesson RE-learned from last month: Don't fcuk around with day-trading type activities, do your homework on a stock WELL and THOROUGHLY before making a rash decision and buying! Once a decision is made to purchase....buy in THIRDS in case of market fluctuations, definitely spaced between 10-15% differences in share price. A good idea is to always determine an exit point for the stock as well. Timing exit is equally important as entry!

More to come later...

The Market...

2007-04-30T23:46:00.000-10:00

is my new girlfriend. I spend half my work day and hours before bed digesting and absorbing anything I possibly can about the stocks, trends and anything else related to it. A couple of great FREE sites to check out:

http://www.fool.com/
http://www.thestreet.com/
http://www.reuters.com/

I also love reading The Investor's Business Daily, however, this is a pay site so I recommend having some friends share the monthly fees with you. Online brokerages also provide a plethora of stock research information, and some even offer real-time stock quotes for FREE!

I personally use Scottrade, which is excellent and provides a lot of FREE benefits that a lot of online brokerages usually charge for. Also, you can setup an account with no minimum balance and there's no annual/monthly fees! They also have a local offices everywhere, so you have someone to ask dumb trading questions (I do it ALL the time!) to or help you with any account problems, which is much better than waiting on hold FOREVER.

If you do decide to get a Scottrade account, I highly suggest you find someone who already has an account so that they can refer you, that way you'll get 3 free trades with a minimum $250 deposit. They'll get 3 free trades also so it's a win win situation! If you can't find a friend with an account, email me, and i'll gladly send you a referral!

Did I also mention that every trade is only $7?! 10 or 10,000 shares, buy or sell, it's always $7. You cannot find a better deal out there!

Anyway, I'll stop talking like a salesperson now! More posts to come about trading strategies (the good stuff)...

Whoa...

2007-04-05T23:03:00.001-10:00

Crap, i just realized it's been MONTHS since i've made an entry! Anyway, it's prolly because i've been up to the SAME 'OL SHIZZO since the last post. Lots of drinking, lots of sleeping, and lots of SEX! Just kidding...I didn't sleep that much!

Honestly though, I've been really engrossed in the U.S. stock markets right now, and I've been exhorting ridiculous amounts of my free time studying charts, reading articles, and picking away at cash flow statements and balance sheets. Basically, I'm downright obsessed and found my true calling. Well, it's prolly just a phase and I'll lose interest as my stocks plummet into oblivion along with my life savings....lol.

I doubt that anyone's interested but here's a website that I've been using to test my theories, and basically compete with other peeps on how well I'd do if it were real life. Of course I do not or would ever have that many stocks in my real portfolio, but let me reiterate that it's just a GAME. The thing with this site is that you also compete with the S&P500, which let me tell you is TOUGH.

But I've been lucky, in the past 6 months I've managed to accumulate 900 points (or 900 percent better than the S&P500), majority of which was through shorting big stocks. For some reason I have this weird knack for calling crappy companies. BUT, I've yet to grow the testicles to try this in real life! However, with the encouragement of my coworkers, I've been monitoring my select picks, and so far with somewhat promising results. I guess the pessimism in me can actually be put to good use!

Maybe in a month or so I'll begin to try it out in real life. Hmm...this is both exciting and scary at the same time! Just like the first time you drove a car! You want to go faster, you know you can go faster, but you know you shouldn't go faster, and sometimes you find out the hard way! And by hard I mean a telephone pole or rock wall, or even worse another car!

Anywho, further posts to come, mainly for record keeping on my theories and certain picks that some of you all out there may consider...stay tuned!

So I fired my secretary...

2007-01-16T15:21:00.001-10:00

Why I fired my Secretary.

Last week was my birthday
and I didn't feel very well
waking up on that morning.

I went downstairs for breakfast
hoping my wife would be pleasant and say, "Happy Birthday!", and possibly have a small present for me.

As it turned out,
she barely said good morning,
let alone " Happy Birthday."

I thought...
Well, that's marriage for you,
but the kids.... They will remember.

My kids came bounding down stairs to breakfast and didn't say a word.
So when I left for the office,
I felt pretty low and somewhat despondent.

As I walked into my office,
my secretary Jane said,
"Good Morning Boss, and by the way
Happy Birthday !" It felt a little better that at least someone had remembered.

I worked until one o'clock ,when Jane knocked on my door and said, "You know, It's such a beautiful day outside,

and it is your Birthday,
what do you say we go out to lunch, just you and me."
I said, "Thanks, Jane, that's the greatest thing I've heard all day. Let's go !"

We went to lunch.
But we didn't go where we normally would go.
She chose instead a quite bistro with a private table.
We had two martinis each
and I enjoyed the meal tremendously.

On the way back to the office, Jane said, "You know, It's such a beautiful day...We don't need to go straight back to the office, Do We ?"

I responded,
"I guess not. What do you have in mind ?"
She said, "Let's drop by my apartment,
it's just around the corner."

After arriving at her apartment,
Jane turned to me and said, " Boss, if you don't mind, I'm going to step into the bedroom for just a moment. I'll be right back."

"Ok." I nervously replied.

She went into the bedroom and,
after a couple of minutes, she came out
carrying a huge birthday cake ... Followed by my wife, my kids, and dozens of my friends and co-workers, all singing "Happy Birthday".

And I just sat there on the couch...

Naked.

Playstation 3

2006-11-27T01:55:00.000-10:00

With all the new PS3 craze going around, I just want to share this story about how someone got their PS3...it's HILARIOUS!

Please read the amazing story of how i got this ps3

i went out wednesday afternoon to the local walmart to start camping out. when i got there, there were already 12 people ther so i got in line being number 13. i talked around and found out the first 6 people there had been there since monday, total hardcore nerds all planning to keep them. bragging about how only they should get the system since theyve been there the longest. how they are so dedicated and how if you dont want to do the time, you shouldnt get a system. generally being complete assholes. good for them. we had a hours to pass so we became friends and played some cards and whatnot. the 6 guys in front kept to themselves and didnt associate with the rest of us. we were cool with each other leaving the line to get food, bathroom, smoke, etc since we all knew each other and as long as they were back in 30 minutes. i was about to leave to go buy some KFC for a good number of us and when i stepped out of line, one of the nerds shouted that if i left, i would lose my spot. the other guys told him that they were vouching for me and that i was just getting food but those 6 assholes didnt care. they said i leave, i lose my spot and that was the rules and they would call the manager (they had his number) to come out and enforce it. i said whatever and stayed in line.

a few hours later, the manager came out and told everyone that there were only going to be SEVEN available. they have them in their store and theyre not getting anymore. he told the people after # 7 they should leave if they wanted to not waste their time. me being number 13 should have left but i didnt, i wanted to stick around for a little bit more. everyone else left except me and the 7 other people that were getting it for sure. so the day goes on and i try to make friends with the nerds. i play mario kart on the ds with them and talk to them about the games they were getting. about an hour or 2 later, i tell im gonnna head home since im 8 in line and theres only 7 ps3s. one of them made some stupid joke about if i leave the line then i aint getting back in!! har har. so as im about to leave, i tell them im going to the vons next door and if any of them wanted any food or coffee and id bring it back to them. one of them said yea and all the rest like sheep followed and said yes too. they were gonna give me money but i told them it was on me since theyve been out here since monday. the 7th guy in line wanted some food and coffee and i told him id buy some for him also.

so i go to vons and buy 8 coffees, some food, and some x-lax laxatives. i bring it to my car and put some laxatives in 6 of the coffees and seperate them from mine and #7s. i pull back to walmart and bring all the drinks and food upfront. i give #7 his stuff and then the coffees with laxatives to the 6 nerds annd wish them good luck and go back to my car. i park it around the corner so i can still see them.

about 30 minutes later, #2 and 3 in line get up and it seemed like they were yelling to the other nerds. they both ran into walmart. seconds later (i guess all nerds have the same biology) #5 gets up and runs across the parking lot and into the trees and bushes somewhere. #1 is scrounging for this portapotty type thing he'd brought with him but he is squirting everywhere and all over his pants and their sleeping bags. he runs into walmart. at this time, i start my car and drive back to the walmart to claim my spot in line. when i get there #4 and 6 are gone but i dont know where. #7 is laughing his ass off so hard and i just smile at him. i call up 5 of the other people that i had made friends with that were in line with me ( i had their phone numbers cause i was gonne buy to food for everyone) and told them to get back to the walmart ASAP and get in line. Meanwhile, me and #7 threw all their shit into the parking lot and i claimed my spot as #1, him as #2. 4 and the people i had called arrived and got in line just as 1 of the nerds came running back and got #7. he started yelling saying they need their spots back. we all told them to fuck off, out of spot, out of line. it was all of us against him so he didnt say shit. the nerds came back and tried to start some shit but we just laughed, we told them it was their rule and to go fuck themselves and clean the shit off their pants. the called security and security came. security man was like WTF is that fuckin smell and looked at the nerds with shit all of them and kicked them off the grounds screaming LMAO. so that is how i got my ps3.

Source

My speeding ticket...

2006-11-13T01:57:00.000-10:00

So the State finally wrote back to me regarding my 31 mph in a 25 mph zone moving violation which i received back in September some time (at 3am on the way to Egg's 'N Things). And the judgment is...

NOT GUILTY!!!

With prejudice though but it's ok...as long as i don't need to spend $90 on a stupid fine and not to mention increased auto insurance premiums. YAY!! More money to spend on stocks (my new addiction).

My advice to everyone is dispute every ticket you get, even if it's a long shot in getting it dismissed. Either go to court personally and argue your case or write a stinky (yet tactful) letter like I did (since I'm sorta non-confrontational). Also, it helps if you have lawyer friends who can give you free advice on effective rebuttals. =)

Smart as a fox...

2006-09-20T11:22:00.000-10:00

Here's an interesting picture that Chad found of an urban fox "investigating" a domestic pet in Birmingham, UK. Poor rabbit must be scared shitless! Then again, I wouldn't blame the fox, the rabbit does look quite plump and delicious, and I assume it's pretty hard to find this sorta prey in an urban environment. Too bad he's pulling the wrong side of the chain! =P

I'm NOT SO famous... =(

2006-09-13T17:29:00.000-10:00

Nevermind, there's a lot of people's names in the Urban Dictionary...BLAH. Here's a few funny ones that I found (don't be mad, i didn't write this stuff!):

3. jupiter
7 up, 5 down

A term used to refer to the rectal and anal condition of inflammation, chaffing, moisture, and subsequent great red spot, similar to that geographically found on the planet of Jupiter.

After mowing the lawn in late August wearing a tight pair of Wrangler's, Paul developed a serious Jupiter.

1. Cavan
3 up, 3 down

A person born/living in the Co. Cavan, the best fucken county in Ireland
Full of beautiful, sound, warm hearted and generous people and considered to be the best dame beer drinkers out of all Ireland! Cavan people are envied by all surrounding counties; also Cavan males have huge manhood’s which is envied by surrounding counties (like those wankers in Roscommon who have tiny peepers!)

Hello Im from 'cavan', ...so fuck off you scumbag of an inferior county!

2. Tory
21 up, 21 down

The word used to describe a member or supporter of the Conservative Party. Along the same line as toff as it really is used as a derogatory way to insult rich or stuck-up people who care for nothing other themselves and their tendencies to shoot wild animals

'Hello, who are you?'
'My name is Jeffrey and I am a Tory'
'A what?'
'A tory, a member of the conserv..'
'Shut the fuck up Jeffrey!'

1. Toad
46 up, 7 down

(N.) The guardian/assistant of Peach Toadstool, the Princess of the Mushroom Kingdom. About 2'6", and 50 lbs. He's a member of his race called the "Toads," who are elfish-like people with Mushroom heads ( or maybe they're hats. I dunno. )

His name is kind of like how "Guy" or "Man" is a name to us, even though it's what we are. His age is very indetermined, much like Santa's Elves. He could be anywhere between 8 and 38. On the old TV series in the early 90's, he was at least old enough to drive, but in the new "Anime-Style" video games, he's very young, like around age 6, as his voice is very high-pitched.

Toad belongs to a race named the Toads. He can be played in Super Mario Kart 64.

4. kyle
12 up, 41 down

a name most commonly used as a boy's name, but may also be used as a girls name, a name very empowering and unique; better suited for females as the name kyle, in essence, is a more feminine sounding name.

meeting a girl named kyle

5. Shelby
14 up, 34 down

A hooker who is dirtier than the average. One that would be utilized for the most perverse of activities.

I need to find a shelby so that I can fulfill my pissing-fetish.

2. anna
16 up, 20 down

A slang term used in the south for animousity. Used in many Three 6 Mafia songs as well as many current artists today(I.E. Young Dro).

"Look at that nigga over there, stuntin n shit"
"You got mad anna wit him don't you?"
"Yea, lets dome check that nigga

1. Chad
42 up, 26 down

A member of the male gender, a Chad is a person, typically named Chad, who goes to bars to pick up chicks. He usually accomplishes this by cockblocking other guys. A Chad can be identified by his appearance which usually consists of the following: mesh trucker hat, frosted hair, greasy spiked hair, polo shirt with the collar turned up, fake tan, ringer t-shirt two sizes too small, pants two sizes too small, wifebeater in public, and a light colored button-up shirt. Chad's also have spent time in a fraternity, will dance by themselves to attract attention, and typically drink light beer.

This bar is full of nothing but Chads.

I would have scored with that girl if that Chad would have just shut his piehole.

I'm FAMOUS!!!

2006-09-12T11:22:00.000-10:00

My name is quite unique so I'm surprised it popped up in the urban dictionary:

Keo

Hmm...not sure about being into oneself...but damn right I'm full of talent!!! They also forgot to add good-looking, smart and f'ing popular! =P

Wanna Die?!?!

2006-08-22T15:24:00.000-10:00

Jupiter played this movie for us on Kauai. Supposedly it's one of the best movies of all time in Korea. This was the only Korean movie that i've seen so far (besides the K-dramas) so in my book it's TRUE! I highly recommend it!!! It's great! I loved it!!!

DRINK COFFEE!!! WANNA DIE!?!?!

Clip from Kauai

2006-08-20T23:42:00.000-10:00

Here's brief clip from our weekend Kauai adventure...I'll post more pics later.

Kitten Wars!!!

2006-08-11T16:08:00.000-10:00

Check out this site, it's brutal!

Click on the kitty...

Ok Goodness!

2006-08-03T10:33:00.000-10:00

An awesome video on YouTube (thanks Cavan)...

Ok Go - Here It Goes Again

Happy Fourth!!!

2006-07-14T21:19:00.000-10:00

July 4, 2006:
Fourth of July was spent at Jup's house. We didn't plan on popping fireworks but Tadpole (Ryan) thought it'd be fun...and it was! Below is just a few highlights, including Cary trying to make some frog legs w/ fireworks! Not shown is Jon blowing up fireworks on Jup's truck, and the fireworks exploding in the garage (Cary got a little too creative!)

Yackity YACK!!!

2006-07-05T21:59:00.000-10:00

I got into a fight with 151 on Friday night and got my ass kicked in the parking lot. Tory followed soon after, but got done in by a bitch named Stoly. =)

STUFF AND RUFF!!!!

2006-06-30T19:11:00.000-10:00

Utah Trip - March 2006:
Finally got the Utah pics from the boys. Utah was super fun, rented a house, had some grown-ups to cook for us, lots of drunken karaoke, visited many different slopes and best of all we got some fresh powder at the end of our trip!!! Here's a sample of the good times we had for those of you who didn't want to go. Most of the pics of me was of me sleeping (Since i suck at snowboarding!).

Mission Statement

2006-06-28T15:02:00.000-10:00

Just a random blog! Funny stories, cool things, WHATEVER.

Happiness is for wimps...

Reconstruction

Puppy Market

Crisis in Japan

Spring Clean-up (Part 1)

Bottoms up!

Tumult Thursday

Batcat!

Morningstar ETF of the year

Long hiatus

OMTR SOLD!!!

Super saver

POWER UP!

SOLD!

Megadeth!

What's up WHAT'S UP?!

Man tries to pay bill with spider drawing

broke as a joke

Credit Card Captain Crunch

The sexiest woman alive (to me)...

quickie post

blalalalalala

Sell time..

oh my OMTR!

Preferred BEST!

ENERGY OVERLOAD!!!

blah la la la la la la

Watchlist update...

Gaga for Google

Amen for AMED!

Trigger Time!

Calling in the professionals...

Shorting...

Oil at an all time high...

Recommended reading...

BADGER BADGER BADGER!!!

Garmin!!!

Latest buy...

An insightful cartoon...

Slacker

Do you have the minerals?

Almost Famous...

An update..

The Investor's Mind

Portfolio update..

Lake Tahoe

I see stupid people...

The sky IS falling!

The Recession is in session people!!!

DOH!

Happy Holidays!

hmm

An Update...RVBD, FSLR, PCAR

ACk!

Go DEEP!

My CAPS Stats

ARGHH!!!

The Market...

Whoa...

So I fired my secretary...

Playstation 3

My speeding ticket...

Smart as a fox...

I'm NOT SO famous... =(

I'm FAMOUS!!!

Wanna Die?!?!

Clip from Kauai

Kitten Wars!!!

Ok Goodness!

Happy Fourth!!!

Yackity YACK!!!

STUFF AND RUFF!!!!

Mission Statement